Based on the economic and tourism trend analysis, insights from Colliers International forecasts, Colliers Georgia has prepared tourism sector revenue recovery projection. According to this proposed model, the effects of the pandemic will last for about 4-5 years, the recovery will be gradual, and the 2019 performance is expected to achieved/restored by 2024.
Georgian Tourism data of 2020 show that international tourist visits have been declined y-o-y by 79% and domestic tourist visits by 10% (Geostat). Low activity in international tourism is expected to be experienced in 2021 too. Low % of recovery trend in 2021 may be also conditioned by low pace of vaccination within our country and in some of the neighboring countries. It is promising that according to the European Commission latest paper, by summer 2021, Member States should have vaccinated a minimum of 70% of the entire adult population. Not as ambitious but there are certain vaccination plans in neighboring countries too. However, looking at the actual pace of vaccination in the target tourism countries, we can assume that vaccination process there will last at least this whole year. Vaccination has started in Georgia, but despite the fact vaccines are available, at this moment only around 35,000 person has taken one dose of vaccine, which is just 1% of the total population. Based on this argumentation, we project that the number of international visitors will be recovered by 30% compared to 2019, we think this will be mainly at the expense of the summer season. In 2022, a higher rate of tourism recovery is expected in accord to increased number of vaccinated people. In our opinion it will reach 60% of 2019 performance. A full recovery will not be possible either this year, as the full end of pandemic is still not expected. By 2023, we think that international tourism will start approaching 2019 results, which will be fully overachieved by 2024.