In the short term, street retail is forecast to experience a significant loss of turnover. The leading categories in the Tbilisi high street tenant mix are service, cafés-restaurants, fashion, and health & beauty. Most likely, the isolation period will negatively impact these categories, of which the most exposed tenants are café-restaurants and fashion retailers, holding 33% of the total mix.
Similarly, shopping centers are expected to suffer from a significant fall in revenues. The Fashion, Food & Beverage, and Entertainment categories, holding 45% of total leased space, will most likely experience a significant negative impact in the short term. Due to reduced demand, hyper/supermarkets within shopping malls will face a partial risk. Presumably, people will prefer small-sized local markets and grocery stores located near their residences.
Nevertheless, landlords/leasers should efficiently work to maintain occupancy. To prevent a growth in vacant spaces, they should reduce the rental rates and apply flexible payment conditions (in case of fixed rental). In the short term, tenants will avoid leaving leased areas or relocating to new spaces as these actions relate to additional capital costs.
In the mid-term, demand may rise for large-sized shopping areas and retail parks (including so-called outlet villages), which will be comprised of isolated commercial units. Also, discussion will open on the relocation of children’s entertainment centers to open spaces.
Tenants operating in shopping centers, as well as street retailers, will gain a stronger negotiation position. It can be assumed that the current business model will change, and the concept of fixed payment will be partially eliminated, with rental rates becoming turnover-based. This will protect tenants from the currency fluctuation, as most rental agreements are in US dollars (equivalent in GEL), and unpredictable demand levels.
In the mid-term, food and grocery stores will benefit most. Increased demand will be maintained for local markets and small retailers that can provide people with products of primary need in the immediate area.
The Fitness sector faces a significant negative impact. The demand for fitness services, even in a period of light isolation, will dramatically drop and/or become equal to zero due to the recommendations from healthcare institutions.
Before a cure for COVID-19 is found, demand will increase for public and open recreational spaces, as well as for parks and urban forests, where the possibility for social distancing is high.
The demand for e-commerce and delivery services increased during the isolation period. It is highly likely that grocery and household retailers will start investing in this sector. However, it is apparent that technology and infrastructure is significantly underdeveloped compared to that in mature economies. Therefore, switching to e-commerce will be a significant challenge for the retail sector in the short and mid-term.